๐Ÿ‘ฅ Sampling and Populations

GCSE Maths ยท Statistics (S1)

Ages 15โ€“16 ยท Foundation & Higher

โ† Back to topic overview
1 Population and Sample
The population is the entire group you want to know about.
A sample is the smaller part of it that you actually study.
A census collects data from every single member of the population.
CensusSample
AccuracyCompletely accurateAn estimate
CostExpensiveMuch cheaper
TimeSlowQuick
PracticalityOften impossibleNearly always possible
Data handlingHuge amount of dataManageable
Why not always take a census? Sometimes it destroys the item being tested โ€” you cannot test every match in a box to see if it lights, or every light bulb to find its lifetime. Sampling is the only option.
Worked Example 1 โ€” Identifying the population

A head teacher wants to know what students at her school think of the canteen. Identify the population, and give one advantage and one disadvantage of using a sample.

โ‘ Population: all the students at the school.
โ‘กAdvantage of sampling: it is quicker and cheaper than asking every student.
โ‘ขDisadvantage: the results are only an estimate and may not represent everyone.
2 What Makes a Good Sample
Two requirements
The sample must be large enough  ยท  The sample must be representative
Representative means the sample has the same mix of characteristics as the whole population. If $60\%$ of the school is female, roughly $60\%$ of the sample should be too.
Bias is anything that makes some members of the population more likely to be chosen than others. A biased sample gives misleading results no matter how large it is.
Sampling methodWhy it is biased
Asking people outside a gym about exerciseGym-goers exercise more than average
Surveying only your friendsFriends tend to share your views and interests
An online pollOnly reaches people with internet access who choose to respond
Asking shoppers on a Tuesday morningMisses people who work weekdays
Asking the first $20$ people on a registerAlphabetical order is not random
3 Simple Random Sampling
Definition
In a simple random sample, every member of the population has an
equal chance of being selected
Worked Example 2 โ€” Describing a random sample

Describe how to take a simple random sample of $30$ students from a school of $900$.

โ‘ Get a list of all $900$ students.
โ‘กNumber them $1$ to $900$.
โ‘ขUse a random number generator to produce numbers between $1$ and $900$.
โ‘ฃSelect the students with those numbers, ignoring any repeated number.
โ‘คContinue until $30$ different students have been chosen.
Exam answers must mention numbering the whole list and random numbers. "Pick $30$ students at random" on its own is not enough detail.
A random sample can still be unrepresentative by chance. It is possible (though unlikely) that all $30$ students chosen happen to be from Year 7. Random removes bias, but not variation.
4 Stratified Sampling
A stratified sample divides the population into groups (strata) โ€” year groups, age bands, departments โ€” and takes a random sample from each, in proportion to its size.
The formula
$\text{number from a group} = \dfrac{\text{size of that group}}{\text{total population}} \times \text{sample size}$
Shortcut: work out the sampling fraction once ($\dfrac{\text{sample size}}{\text{population}}$), then multiply every group by it. Much quicker than doing the full fraction each time.
Worked Example 3 โ€” A stratified sample

A school has $1200$ students. A stratified sample of $80$ is required.

Year$9$$10$$11$
Students$450$$420$$330$

How many from each year group?

โ‘ Sampling fraction $= \dfrac{80}{1200} = \dfrac{1}{15}$
โ‘กYear 9: $450 \div 15 = 30$
โ‘ขYear 10: $420 \div 15 = 28$
โ‘ฃYear 11: $330 \div 15 = 22$

Check: $30 + 28 + 22 = 80$ โœ“

Worked Example 4 โ€” When the numbers do not divide neatly

A company has $253$ employees in three departments: $118$, $87$ and $48$. A stratified sample of $40$ is taken. How many from each?

โ‘ Sampling fraction $= \dfrac{40}{253} = 0.15810$
โ‘กDept A: $118 \times 0.15810 = 18.66 \to 19$
โ‘ขDept B: $87 \times 0.15810 = 13.75 \to 14$
โ‘ฃDept C: $48 \times 0.15810 = 7.59 \to 8$
โ‘คCheck: $19 + 14 + 8 = 41$ โ€” one too many.
โ‘ฅRound down the value whose decimal part is closest to $0.5$ โ€” that is Dept C ($7.59$), so take $7$ instead of $8$.
โ‘ฆFinal sample: $19 + 14 + 7 = 40$ โœ“
Rounding can spoil the total. Always add up at the end. If the total is out by one, adjust the group whose decimal was closest to $0.5$.
Worked Example 5 โ€” Working backwards

A stratified sample includes $18$ students from Year 8. Year 8 has $360$ students out of a school total of $1500$. Find the total sample size.

โ‘ Sampling fraction $= \dfrac{18}{360} = 0.05$
โ‘กTotal sample $= 0.05 \times 1500 = 75$ students
5 Other Sampling Methods
MethodHow it worksMain weakness
SystematicTake every $n$th member from an ordered listBias if the list has a repeating pattern
ClusterDivide into groups, then survey whole groups chosen at randomClusters may differ from each other
QuotaInterviewer fills fixed quotas of each type of personThe interviewer chooses who to ask, so bias creeps in
Opportunity (convenience)Ask whoever is availableAlmost always biased; quick but unreliable
Worked Example 6 โ€” Systematic sampling

Describe how to take a systematic sample of $50$ from a list of $2000$ people.

โ‘ $2000 \div 50 = 40$, so take every $40$th person.
โ‘กChoose a random starting point between $1$ and $40$ โ€” say $17$.
โ‘ขSelect people numbered $17$, $57$, $97$, $137$, and so on.
The random start is essential. Always starting at number $1$ would make the method non-random.
6 The Limitations of Sampling
A sample can never be certain. Whatever you conclude about the population is an estimate. Two things determine how good that estimate is:
โ€ข the size of the sample โ€” larger is better;
โ€ข whether the sample is representative โ€” an unbiased method is essential.
Worked Example 7 โ€” Criticising a sampling method

A council wants to know whether residents support a new car park. It surveys $200$ people leaving a supermarket car park on a Saturday. Give two criticisms and suggest an improvement.

โ‘ Biased location. People leaving a car park are drivers, who are far more likely to support more parking.
โ‘กBiased timing. A Saturday misses weekday commuters and people who work at weekends.
โ‘ขImprovement: take a stratified random sample from the electoral roll, covering all areas of the town and both drivers and non-drivers, and survey at a range of times.
Worked Example 8 โ€” Using a sample to estimate a population

In a random sample of $150$ households, $54$ own two or more cars. The town has $12\,000$ households. Estimate how many own two or more cars, and state one assumption.

โ‘ Proportion in the sample $= \dfrac{54}{150} = 0.36$
โ‘กEstimate $= 0.36 \times 12\,000 = 4320$ households
โ‘ขAssumption: the sample is representative of all households in the town.
7 Quick Reference

Population

The whole group you want to know about.

Census

Every member โ€” accurate but slow and costly.

Sample

Part of the population โ€” quick, but only an estimate.

Good sample

Large enough and representative.

Bias

Some members more likely to be chosen than others.

Random sample

Number the whole list, then use random numbers.

Stratified

$\dfrac{\text{group size}}{\text{population}} \times$ sample size.

Rounding

Check the strata add to the sample size; adjust if not.

Estimating

Sample proportion $\times$ population size.

Always state

The assumption that the sample is representative.

8 Practice Questions
Question 1

Explain the difference between a census and a sample, and give one advantage of each.

โ–ถ Show solution

A census collects data from every member of the population; a sample uses only part of it.

Advantage of a census: the results are completely accurate.

Advantage of a sample: it is much quicker and cheaper, and is the only option when testing destroys the item.

Question 2

Describe how to take a simple random sample of $25$ people from a club with $400$ members.

โ–ถ Show solution

1. Obtain a full list of all $400$ members.

2. Number them $1$ to $400$.

3. Use a random number generator to produce numbers from $1$ to $400$.

4. Select the members with those numbers, ignoring repeats.

5. Continue until $25$ different members have been chosen.

Question 3

A school of $900$ students has $500$ girls and $400$ boys. A stratified sample of $45$ is taken. How many girls and boys should be in it?

โ–ถ Show solution

Sampling fraction $= \dfrac{45}{900} = 0.05$

Girls: $0.05 \times 500 = 25$

Boys: $0.05 \times 400 = 20$

Check: $25 + 20 = 45$ โœ“

Question 4

Give two reasons why surveying people outside a leisure centre would be a biased way of finding out how much exercise the town's residents do.

โ–ถ Show solution

1. People at a leisure centre are far more likely to exercise regularly than the average resident, so the results would overstate exercise levels.

2. It excludes anyone who never visits the leisure centre โ€” including those who do no exercise at all, exactly the group the survey most needs.

Question 5

A company with $1500$ employees takes a stratified sample of $60$. The sample contains $14$ people from the sales department. How many people work in sales?

โ–ถ Show solution

Sampling fraction $= \dfrac{60}{1500} = 0.04$

Sales employees $= \dfrac{14}{0.04} = 350$ people

Question 6

Describe how to take a systematic sample of $40$ from a list of $1000$ people.

โ–ถ Show solution

$1000 \div 40 = 25$, so take every $25$th person.

Choose a random starting number between $1$ and $25$ โ€” say $8$.

Then select people numbered $8$, $33$, $58$, $83$, and so on up to the $40$th selection.

Question 7

In a random sample of $200$ light bulbs, $6$ were faulty. Estimate the number of faulty bulbs in a batch of $15\,000$, and state an assumption.

โ–ถ Show solution

Proportion faulty $= \dfrac{6}{200} = 0.03$

Estimate $= 0.03 \times 15\,000 = 450$ faulty bulbs

Assumption: the sample is representative of the whole batch.

Question 8

A youth club has $260$ members: $95$ aged 11โ€“13, $110$ aged 14โ€“16 and $55$ aged 17โ€“18. A stratified sample of $50$ is taken. Find the number from each age group.

โ–ถ Show solution

Sampling fraction $= \dfrac{50}{260} = 0.19231$

11โ€“13: $95 \times 0.19231 = 18.27 \to 18$

14โ€“16: $110 \times 0.19231 = 21.15 \to 21$

17โ€“18: $55 \times 0.19231 = 10.58 \to 11$

Check: $18 + 21 + 11 = 50$ โœ“

Question 9

A newspaper places a survey on its website asking readers whether they support a policy. $8000$ people respond and $72\%$ agree. Give three reasons why this may not represent the views of the country.

โ–ถ Show solution

1. Self-selection bias: only people who feel strongly enough to respond take part, and they are often those who disagree with the status quo.

2. Readership bias: the sample only reaches that newspaper's readers, who may share particular political views.

3. Access bias: it excludes anyone without internet access or who does not visit the website.

A large sample size does not fix bias โ€” $8000$ biased responses are still biased.

Question 10

A town has $8400$ residents. A researcher takes a stratified sample of $120$ by age group.

AgeUnder 1818โ€“6465 and over
Residents$1890$$4830$$1680$

(a) Find the number in the sample from each age group.   (b) In the sample, $27$ of the 18โ€“64 group cycle to work. Estimate how many 18โ€“64 year olds in the town cycle to work.   (c) Give one limitation of this estimate.

โ–ถ Show solution

(a) Sampling fraction $= \dfrac{120}{8400} = \dfrac{1}{70}$

Under 18: $1890 \div 70 = 27$

18โ€“64: $4830 \div 70 = 69$

65+: $1680 \div 70 = 24$

Check: $27 + 69 + 24 = 120$ โœ“

(b) Proportion cycling $= \dfrac{27}{69} = 0.3913$

Estimate $= 0.3913 \times 4830 = 1890$ people

Or directly: $27 \times 70 = 1890$ โœ“

(c) The estimate relies on the $69$ sampled adults being representative of all $4830$. With such a small subgroup, the true figure could differ noticeably โ€” and factors such as where in the town people live, or the weather when the survey was taken, could distort the result.

Sampling & Populations (S1) ยท GCSE Maths Revision ยท Created with MathJax